ASML, a key player in the semiconductor and chipmaking industry, has been actively repurchasing its stock, driven by discounted prices and potential upside. The tech sector is heavily influenced by institutional investors, making traditional tools like charts and news less reliable. Retail investors need to understand institutional strategies to spot opportunities, such as ASML's current stock position.

ASML's management is confident about future prospects, as evidenced by substantial stock buybacks. In June 2025, they purchased over 92,654 shares, equating to $61.4 million, reflecting significant belief in company valuation. Accompanying this move, Voya Investment Management invested $14 million in ASML, aligning with insider confidence in the company's potential.

Currently, ASML trades at a notably lower price than its peers like NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor, despite its valuation metrics indicating otherwise. The company is at 68% of its 52-week high, unlike its competitors who have reached new peaks. Investors see no fundamental cause for this discrepancy, fueling ASML's attractiveness as an investment opportunity.

The valuation comparison reveals ASML's potential. While Taiwan Semiconductor trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21.1x, ASML's is slightly higher at 23.0x, despite its stock price being lower. This suggests possible price adjustments in favor of ASML. Furthermore, ASML's price-to-sales ratio, significantly higher than that of Taiwan Semiconductor, indicates expected superior growth and quality.

The alignment between institutional buying and ASML's valuation metrics underscores the bullish sentiment about ASML closing the valuation gap with its peers. This optimism is reflected in both insider activities and institutional investments, hinting at a favorable outlook for ASML in upcoming quarters.